Spooky Action at a Distance

So Dave Boren, E. Gordon Gee and Ken Starr walk into a bar in Memphis…

Sounds like the start of a good joke doesn’t it?

The “three amigos” that comprise the Big 12’s “composition committee”  are known for their ambition and cunning (despite Dr. Gee’s ubiquitous bow tie leading one to believe otherwise)  and it’s their ambition for the Big 12 that just may lead to expansion for the “psychologically disadvantaged” conference sooner rather than later.

But let’s set aside Big 12 expansion for a moment and talk about the recent rumors concerning the Big 12’s stability.

All the rumors you read about the conference being on the brink of dissolving are hogwash. Nobody is leaving the Big 12.

The Big 12 is stable, profitable and healthy – at least until 2025.

Fox cannot move Big 12 members from one conference to another.

The Big 12’s grant of rights cannot be abrogated without extreme risk and financial liability. So if any schools actually does want out then they have to wait out the grant of rights.

So why do the rumors persist?

In the age of social media a rumor can gain steam and be taken up by anyone. If they want the rumor to be true due to their personal bias they suspend disbelief and accept it as fact. Boosters do it all the time. Money doesn’t make them immune.

“Conference Superiority Syndrome” (CSS) makes that informational bias even worse.

I find it ironic that the supporters of SEC schools – the only conference worthy of its fans displaying CSS - show the least amount of CSS.

The rumor that Fox has the power to set aside the Big 12 grant of rights and move Oklahoma or Kansas to the Big Ten is a product of CSS. It was started by a particular subset of Big Ten fans who – for some unknown reason – have it in for the Big 12.

Let’s go over some of the more juicer rumors…

Rumor #1 - Fox Intends Move Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten

100% false.

Fox doesn’t have that power.

What the rumormongers fail to understand is that Fox shares the Big 12’s television deal with ESPN and both are contractually obligated to the Big 12 to the tune of $2.6 billion dollars.

With so much money committed to the Big 12 neither Fox or ESPN is going to devalue their investment by moving Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten. 

Even if Fox had the will (they don’t) they don’t have the means.

The Big 12 member instructions granted their television rights to the conference not Fox and ESPN.

Maybe the rumormongers forgot that Fox and ESPN required the Big 12 to have a grant of rights before they would invest that $2.6 billion into the conference.

What were Fox and ESPN doing when they demanded the Big 12 have a grant of rights? They were protecting their investment.

Big Ten jingoists have argued with me about the Fox rumor. They claim that since Fox pays television money they have the right to set aside the grant of rights. That’s not even remotely true.

The TV contract is with the conference not the member schools. The networks pay the conference for broadcasting Big 12 games and the conference distributes revenues to the member schools.

Let’s say that Fox – in some alternate universe – actually wanted to breech it’s contract with the Big 12.  If they did they would be guiltily of tortious interference.

Basically tortious interference means that Fox wrongfully and intentionally interfered with the Big 12’s contractual relations with Fox, ESPN and Big 12 members.

Punitive damages would apply and the damages on a $2.6 billion contract could easily exceed the $11.3 billion value of the entire Fox network.

Yes – the Big Ten jingoists argue – but the remaining Big 12 schools wouldn’t sue Fox.

Really? The rumormongers must forget that if the Big 12 drops below 10 members their contract either reduces in value or is voided entirely.

So the Big 12 schools that are left behind will allow Fox to break its contract and reduce their revenue? Do you really believe that?

Remember when Texas A&M announced it was leaving for the SEC and Baylor threatened a lawsuit?

Rumor #2 – Texas and Oklahoma Wouldn’t Sign the GoR Without a Way Out

Yes they did. They didn’t have a choice.

Texas was bound to the Big 12 by the Longhorn network and Oklahoma was bound to the Big 12 by Oklahoma State (so some say).

Without a place to call home neither was in the position to risk turning down the offer made by Fox and ESPN.

Let’s be clear. Both Texas and Oklahoma made concessions to keep the Big 12 intact. They signed the grant of rights. Their boards approved the grant of rights.

They knew what they were signing.

And just like every other Big 12 school they signed it and took the $6 million signing bonus for doing it.

Liquidated damages are not applicable because of the nature of the harm leaving the Big 12 would do to the conference and the remaining members.

The risks (and the costs associated with challenging the grant of rights) is too great.

I’m sure the Big Ten jingoists will make other arguments -  equally implausible – on how Oklahoma and Kansas will get out of the grant of rights. Ignore them. They don’t know what they are talking about.

Recently two Big 12 schools approached the SEC. The SEC declined interest due to the grant of rights.

The costs are simply too high.  The risk far outweighs any potential benefit.

Rumor #3 – There is unrest in the Big 12

True. It’s over the Longhorn Network and the Big 12’s desire to have a conference network and therefore expansion.

A credible rumor I heard last week was that ESPN had communicated to Texas they (ESPN) say LHN as an albatross around their neck that only depressed earnings. 

Texas has no reason to give up the LHN or let ESPN out of its contract and I don’t blame them.

The Big 12 could use reserve funds to somehow buy into LHN or buy secondary rights from ESPN to show UT events on the potential network.

There is a workaround and the best minds in the Big 12 are working on a solution.

The solution is likely expansion. Expand the Big 12 footprint and suddenly the cost of buying into LHN becomes plausible and I’m told ESPN would welcome the Big 12’s cash.

Which brings us to the final rumor of the day…

Rumor #4 – The Big 12 will Expand Sooner Rather than Later

True…  2017 is sooner than 2025 right?

Maybe even next year if a Big 12 school misses the playoffs again.

The Big 12 is  working with the Big 12’s television partners to assess potential members and their value to a potential Big 12 network.

Nobody has been selected yet. Nor has the conference decided it they will add 2, 4 or even 6.

But the Big 12 is looking for the best combination of market value and program strength.

Tomorrow I’ll talk more about possible Big 12 expansion.