Really Spooky Action at a Greater Distance

Let’s spend just a little more time talking about Big 12 stability.

When I was a young lad growing up in the southern coalfields of West Virginia my grandfather raised championship quality Bluetick Coonhounds.

My Papaw had a vetting process where he would test the potential hunting prowess of the pups by dragging a raccoon’s tail on the ground and seeing which pups followed the scent.

Rarely one of the pups would have a dumb nose and wouldn’t take up the hunt. This pup was usually given away as a pet.

This is how Beauregard came into my life. Beauregard wasn’t my first dog but he was certainly one of the sweetest. He didn’t have a mean bone in his body. I once saw that dog snuggle with a duckling.

Normally Blueticks are intelligent dogs… Beauregard not so much.  He was especially clueless hunting and was always barking up the wrong tree.

And that’s exactly what those spreading rumors about the impending demise of the Big 12 are doing – barking up the wrong tree.

No matter how much they howl and bay, no matter the furious sound of their insistence, there’s nary a raccoon hiding in the branches.

Just as there’s nothing to the rumors of Oklahoma leaving.

Four years ago David Boren admitted Oklahoma had spoken to the Pac 12 and Big Ten. That was when the Big 12 teetered on the verge of collapse. Texas A&M and Missouri had left and the fear was that Texas was headed to the Pac 12. Naturally the remaining schools were desperately looking for a soft landing spot.

The Big Ten took a hard long look at Oklahoma and Kansas… and did nothing.

The Pac 12 took a hard long look at Oklahoma… and did nothing.

Then a funny thing happened. The 8 remaining Big 12 schools signed a six year grant of rights after Fox and ESPN promised their support for the conference.

In the press conference where Oklahoma President David Boren announced the decision to adopt  the initial 6 year  grant of rights Boren said:

“A six-year grant of rights — of our television rights, Tier 1 and Tier 2 — was agreed to by all the institutions' presidents  and will effectively end the upheaval.”

Boren went on to say “The GoR is an affirmation that we all intend to stay together.  That GoR really has teeth in it. Because, as all of you know, when you assign your rights to the conference it’s very unlikely you would ever receive an invitation from another conference. Because during the term of the GoR anything you earn in terms of TV revenue, does not go to the new conference you might have joined but instead back to the Big 12. These are very strong handcuffs. The GoR really does bind the conference together and shows that we fully intend to stay together.”

Strong words from David Boren fully showing the intent of the Big 12 GoR.

What does that history lesson tell us? We know that Texas backed away from the Pac 12 because of the Longhorn Network. We know that both the Big Ten and Pac 12 passed – for whatever reason – on Oklahoma.

We also know that Fox and ESPN wanted the Big 12 intact and paid for it by giving them a premium.

We also know that it was David Boren who championed the Grant of Rights and it’s intent was to stabilize the Big 12.

And that’s just what it’s done no matter how loudly the Beauregards of social media howl at the moon.

Later that GoR would be extended to 13 years when TCU and WVU were added to the Big 12 and now runs through the 2025 season.

So if Oklahoma or any Big 12 school wants to leave the conference they’ll just have to wait it out.

The Big Ten

Let’s talk about the Big Ten for a second. I get that Oklahoma is a prestige program with great fans and great history. But Oklahoma does nothing for the Big Ten – not really.

The Big Ten isn’t so concerned about great football as it is great profits. Sure it has Ohio State and certainly Michigan will be back. But the conference had the chance to add both Oklahoma and FSU and instead added Rutgers and Maryland.

Why? Because those two school have huge markets and thus huge carriage fees.

It doesn’t make sense for the business first Big Ten to add Oklahoma or Kansas when the real money (and southern exposure needed for recruiting) is in the south-east.

Think about why the Big Ten would turn away FSU (academics – non AAU status) and then turn around and go after Oklahoma (also non AAU) who has a much smaller market than FSU and isn’t anywhere close to being to being the recruiting hotbed that is Florida.

Doesn’t make dollars and cents does it?

Pandora’s Box

A few weeks ago I had a trusted source admit that the ACC GoR wasn’t legally binding because “due consideration” wasn’t received in exchange for the rights. But he made a point that it didn’t matter because nobody will challenge the GoR.

He said doing so would open Pandora’s Box and chaos would reign until congress decided to get involved and tax proceeds from college sports – and nobody wants that to happen – not the conferences – not the networks – not the schools.

Finally Big 12 Expansion

Nothing new on this front. The Big 12 is taking a hard long look at just about everyone available and nothing has been decided including how many they may add.

But I’ll write about the issues next week – if I have time. After I’ve spoken to a few contacts over the weekend. If they say anything important.

Ignore all rumors for now. This stuff can ebb and flow.

What’s for sure is that the Big 12 is looking for one of two factors to kick in expansion.

The first is the college football playoffs. Bill Hancock was at the Big 12’s media days and told anyone who could listen that the Big 12 was close to having both Baylor and TCU in the playoffs. It was Ohio State who played themselves into the playoffs (and Baylor and TCU out) by blasting Wisconsin.

The takeaway from that is that it wasn’t so much of the Big 12’s lack of a conference championship game but the opportunity Ohio State had to impress by playing in the Big Ten’s championship game.

Hancock made it clear that had Ohio State lost or not impressed that a Big 12 school would have made the playoffs.

It’s not hard to believe that Baylor and TCU would have made it in had Georgia Tech beaten FSU or Wisconsin shown a pulse.

This is a certainty. If the Big 12 misses the playoffs this season they will expand.

The Big 12 Network you know about. Exactly how does the Big 12 obtain rights to LHN… that’s the question.

A network means expansion and maybe to 14 or even 16. If the price tag on LHN is high enough then more schools equal more revenue….

Spooky Action at a Distance

So Dave Boren, E. Gordon Gee and Ken Starr walk into a bar in Memphis…

Sounds like the start of a good joke doesn’t it?

The “three amigos” that comprise the Big 12’s “composition committee”  are known for their ambition and cunning (despite Dr. Gee’s ubiquitous bow tie leading one to believe otherwise)  and it’s their ambition for the Big 12 that just may lead to expansion for the “psychologically disadvantaged” conference sooner rather than later.

But let’s set aside Big 12 expansion for a moment and talk about the recent rumors concerning the Big 12’s stability.

All the rumors you read about the conference being on the brink of dissolving are hogwash. Nobody is leaving the Big 12.

The Big 12 is stable, profitable and healthy – at least until 2025.

Fox cannot move Big 12 members from one conference to another.

The Big 12’s grant of rights cannot be abrogated without extreme risk and financial liability. So if any schools actually does want out then they have to wait out the grant of rights.

So why do the rumors persist?

In the age of social media a rumor can gain steam and be taken up by anyone. If they want the rumor to be true due to their personal bias they suspend disbelief and accept it as fact. Boosters do it all the time. Money doesn’t make them immune.

“Conference Superiority Syndrome” (CSS) makes that informational bias even worse.

I find it ironic that the supporters of SEC schools – the only conference worthy of its fans displaying CSS - show the least amount of CSS.

The rumor that Fox has the power to set aside the Big 12 grant of rights and move Oklahoma or Kansas to the Big Ten is a product of CSS. It was started by a particular subset of Big Ten fans who – for some unknown reason – have it in for the Big 12.

Let’s go over some of the more juicer rumors…

Rumor #1 - Fox Intends Move Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten

100% false.

Fox doesn’t have that power.

What the rumormongers fail to understand is that Fox shares the Big 12’s television deal with ESPN and both are contractually obligated to the Big 12 to the tune of $2.6 billion dollars.

With so much money committed to the Big 12 neither Fox or ESPN is going to devalue their investment by moving Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten. 

Even if Fox had the will (they don’t) they don’t have the means.

The Big 12 member instructions granted their television rights to the conference not Fox and ESPN.

Maybe the rumormongers forgot that Fox and ESPN required the Big 12 to have a grant of rights before they would invest that $2.6 billion into the conference.

What were Fox and ESPN doing when they demanded the Big 12 have a grant of rights? They were protecting their investment.

Big Ten jingoists have argued with me about the Fox rumor. They claim that since Fox pays television money they have the right to set aside the grant of rights. That’s not even remotely true.

The TV contract is with the conference not the member schools. The networks pay the conference for broadcasting Big 12 games and the conference distributes revenues to the member schools.

Let’s say that Fox – in some alternate universe – actually wanted to breech it’s contract with the Big 12.  If they did they would be guiltily of tortious interference.

Basically tortious interference means that Fox wrongfully and intentionally interfered with the Big 12’s contractual relations with Fox, ESPN and Big 12 members.

Punitive damages would apply and the damages on a $2.6 billion contract could easily exceed the $11.3 billion value of the entire Fox network.

Yes – the Big Ten jingoists argue – but the remaining Big 12 schools wouldn’t sue Fox.

Really? The rumormongers must forget that if the Big 12 drops below 10 members their contract either reduces in value or is voided entirely.

So the Big 12 schools that are left behind will allow Fox to break its contract and reduce their revenue? Do you really believe that?

Remember when Texas A&M announced it was leaving for the SEC and Baylor threatened a lawsuit?

Rumor #2 – Texas and Oklahoma Wouldn’t Sign the GoR Without a Way Out

Yes they did. They didn’t have a choice.

Texas was bound to the Big 12 by the Longhorn network and Oklahoma was bound to the Big 12 by Oklahoma State (so some say).

Without a place to call home neither was in the position to risk turning down the offer made by Fox and ESPN.

Let’s be clear. Both Texas and Oklahoma made concessions to keep the Big 12 intact. They signed the grant of rights. Their boards approved the grant of rights.

They knew what they were signing.

And just like every other Big 12 school they signed it and took the $6 million signing bonus for doing it.

Liquidated damages are not applicable because of the nature of the harm leaving the Big 12 would do to the conference and the remaining members.

The risks (and the costs associated with challenging the grant of rights) is too great.

I’m sure the Big Ten jingoists will make other arguments -  equally implausible – on how Oklahoma and Kansas will get out of the grant of rights. Ignore them. They don’t know what they are talking about.

Recently two Big 12 schools approached the SEC. The SEC declined interest due to the grant of rights.

The costs are simply too high.  The risk far outweighs any potential benefit.

Rumor #3 – There is unrest in the Big 12

True. It’s over the Longhorn Network and the Big 12’s desire to have a conference network and therefore expansion.

A credible rumor I heard last week was that ESPN had communicated to Texas they (ESPN) say LHN as an albatross around their neck that only depressed earnings. 

Texas has no reason to give up the LHN or let ESPN out of its contract and I don’t blame them.

The Big 12 could use reserve funds to somehow buy into LHN or buy secondary rights from ESPN to show UT events on the potential network.

There is a workaround and the best minds in the Big 12 are working on a solution.

The solution is likely expansion. Expand the Big 12 footprint and suddenly the cost of buying into LHN becomes plausible and I’m told ESPN would welcome the Big 12’s cash.

Which brings us to the final rumor of the day…

Rumor #4 – The Big 12 will Expand Sooner Rather than Later

True…  2017 is sooner than 2025 right?

Maybe even next year if a Big 12 school misses the playoffs again.

The Big 12 is  working with the Big 12’s television partners to assess potential members and their value to a potential Big 12 network.

Nobody has been selected yet. Nor has the conference decided it they will add 2, 4 or even 6.

But the Big 12 is looking for the best combination of market value and program strength.

Tomorrow I’ll talk more about possible Big 12 expansion.